Symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis
Outcome of patients who fail antithrombotic therapy
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Abstract
Objective: To determine the prognosis of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail antithrombotic therapy.
Background: The outcome of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail antithrombotic therapy is unknown. These patients may represent the target group for investigation of more aggressive therapies such as intracranial angioplasty.
Methods: The authors performed a chart review and telephone interview of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis identified in the Stanford Stroke Center clinical database. A Cox regression model was created to identify factors predictive of failure of antithrombotic therapy. The authors generated Kaplan–Meier survival curves to determine the timing of recurrent TIA, stroke, or death after failure of antithrombotic therapy.
Results: Fifty-two patients had symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis and fulfilled entry criteria. Twenty-nine of the 52 patients (55.8%) had cerebral ischemic events while receiving an antithrombotic agent (antiplatelet agents [55%], warfarin [31%], or heparin [14%]). In a Cox regression model, older age was an independent predictor of failure of antithrombotic therapy, and warfarin use was associated with a decrease in risk. Recurrent TIA (n = 7), nonfatal/fatal stroke (n = 6/1), or death (n = 1) occurred in 15 of 29 (51.7%) of the patients who failed antithrombotic therapy. The median time to recurrent TIA, stroke, or death was 36 days (95% CI 13 to 59).
Conclusions: Patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail antithrombotic therapy have extremely high rates of recurrent TIA/stroke or death. Recurrent ischemic events typically occur within a few months after failure of standard medical therapy. The high recurrence risk observed warrants testing of alternative treatment strategies such as intracranial angioplasty.
Intracranial atherosclerosis causes ∼8% of all ischemic strokes.1,2 Many patients with this disease have recurrent cerebral ischemic events despite standard medical therapy with antiplatelet agents or oral anticoagulants. In the Extracranial/Intracranial Bypass Trial, patients with symptomatic middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis randomized to medical therapy had annual ipsilateral stroke rates of 7.8% and total stroke rates of 9.5%.3,4 Retrospective studies indicate a possible superiority of warfarin over aspirin for prevention of stroke in patients with symptomatic intracranial stenosis, and this assumption is currently being tested in the Warfarin versus Aspirin for Symptomatic Intracranial Disease (WASID) trial.5,6
The high recurrent stroke rates indicate the need for more aggressive treatment methods for patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis. Intracranial angioplasty has recently been proposed as a promising treatment for patients with ongoing cerebral ischemic events despite standard medical therapy. This procedure is reported to have acceptably low complication rates in recent series, although broad experience has been gained in only a few centers.7–11 Many centers reserve intracranial angioplasty for patients who have TIA or a minor stroke despite antithrombotic therapy. These “medical failure” patients may be the ideal patient group to evaluate in a randomized trial of intracranial angioplasty versus medical therapy.
To help optimize the selection criteria and the sample size for a randomized trial, it is important to establish the natural history of symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis and to clarify the prognosis of patients who fail medical therapy.
The goals of this study were to 1) identify the clinical features of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who are at increased risk of suffering cerebral ischemic events despite therapy with antithrombotic agents, 2) assess the natural history of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail standard antithrombotic therapy, and 3) determine the rates and the timing of recurrent cerebral ischemic events or death.
Methods.
We reviewed the charts of patients with the diagnosis of intracranial atherosclerosis from the Stanford Stroke Center database between August 1992 and September 1999. This database registers the clinical characteristics and the investigations performed on in- and outpatients referred to the Stanford Stroke Center with a diagnosis of TIA (21.1%) or ischemic stroke (78.9%). The database records consecutively admitted in- and outpatients from 1996 onward. The frequency of intracranial atherosclerosis was determined from the number of patients during the period 1996 to 1999. Additional nonconsecutive patients from the period 1992 to 1995 were included for all other analyses. The study was approved by the Stanford University Institutional Review Board.
Demographic characteristics, stroke risk factors, timing of cerebral ischemic events, and location and severity of intracranial atherosclerosis were determined by review of the medical records. A semistructured interview was also conducted by telephone to assess development of any new cerebral ischemic events that occurred since the last clinic or hospital visit.
Inclusion criteria for this study included TIA or stroke attributed to significant intracranial atherosclerosis of the MCA, the carotid siphon, the intracranial vertebral artery, or the basilar artery. Intracranial stenosis was defined as the presence of a significant stenosis (defined as 50 to 99% stenosis) on either angiogram (North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial method), transcranial Dopper sonography (TCD), or MR angiography (MRA). For angiography or MRA reports that did not specify the percentage of stenosis, descriptive terms including “severe stenosis” or “high- or moderate-grade stenosis” or “flow gap” were accepted as evidence of ≥50% stenosis. TCD criteria for significant stenosis were mean velocity of ≥90 cm/s for vertebral and basilar artery stenosis, ≥120 cm/s for MCA, and ≥90 cm/s for the carotid siphon. TIA was defined as a transient (<24 h) focal neurologic deficit attributed to cerebral ischemia. Stroke was defined as a focal neurologic deficit lasting >24 h attributed to cerebral infarction.
The exclusion criteria for the study were as follows:
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1. The presence of another potential cause of stroke or TIA such as cardioembolism (atrial fibrillation, prosthetic valve, myocardial infarction within 6 weeks, mitral stenosis, intracardiac clot, bacterial endocarditis, or ventricular aneurysm) or a tandem high-grade proximal stenosis (≥50%) of the vertebral or carotid artery
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2. Uncertain diagnosis of TIA or stroke
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3. Severity of stenosis unclear from the records
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4. Presence of potential confounding neurologic diseases (complex partial epilepsy)
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5. Intracranial stenosis following basilar meningitis, moyamoya disease, vasculitis, or dissection
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6. Isolated stenosis of the anterior or posterior cerebral arteries
Failure of antithrombotic therapy was defined as the occurrence of ischemic events (either one or more TIA or strokes or both) while using therapeutic doses of aspirin (>81 mg/day), warfarin (International Normalized Ratio [INR] ≥ 2.0), ticlopidine (500 mg/day), clopidogrel (75 mg/day), or heparin (prolongation of partial thromboplastin time of >1.5 times baseline value). Patients with TIA or stroke who were taking these antithrombotic agents for unrelated reasons (i.e., coronary artery disease) at the time they had a cerebral ischemic event were also considered to fail antithrombotic therapy. Although the initial stroke or TIA was required to be attributable to an intracranial atherosclerotic lesion, all TIA or strokes that occurred during follow-up were counted as outcome events. Cerebral ischemic events related to complications of angiography or intracranial angioplasty were not considered to be qualifying or outcome events. A diagram of the types of patients included in the study is shown in the figure.
Figure 1. Diagram of study design. Gray boxes indicate patients who failed antithrombotic therapy.
Statistical analysis.
The clinical characteristics of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who failed medical therapy at any time were compared with those of patients who never failed antithrombotic therapy. Student’s t-test was used for continuous variables and χ2 tests with continuity correction or Fisher’s exact tests were used for categorical variables.
Subsequently, a Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of failure of antithrombotic therapy correcting for imbalances in risk factors between the two groups and differences in length of follow-up. Patients taking a therapeutic dose of one of the prespecified antithrombotic agents (see above for list of agents and doses) at the time of their first cerebral ischemic event were considered to fail on the day the TIA/stroke occurred. Covariates forced in the model were age, anterior versus posterior circulation disease, and therapy with warfarin versus antiplatelet agents. Covariates identified in univariate analyses as different (p < 0.10) between the groups (see table 1) were also included in the model.
Clinical features of study patients
Finally, Kaplan–Meier survival curves were generated to estimate the median time to first TIA, stroke, or death after the initial failure of antithrombotic therapy. The onset of follow-up used in this analysis was the day a new antithrombotic therapy was started after the patient had a TIA or stroke while receiving an antithrombotic agent. Cerebral ischemic events occurring during follow-up were not required to be in the same vascular distribution as the original symptomatic lesion. The required two-tailed significance level for all tests was set at 0.05.
Results.
Frequency of intracranial atherosclerosis.
Between January 1996 and September 1999, 1344 consecutive in- and outpatients with TIA or stroke were evaluated by the Stanford Stroke Center. During this time period, 36 (2.7%) patients were diagnosed with significant intracranial atherosclerosis as the unique cause of TIA or stroke. Eighteen additional patients were identified with intracranial atherosclerosis of ≥50%, but the stenosis was either asymptomatic (n = 7) or not clearly responsible for the episode(s) of cerebral ischemia (n = 11). Therefore, the frequency of significant intracranial atherosclerosis was 4% of all patients (54/1344 patients). Twenty-one (58.3%) patients had a TIA or stroke while receiving an antithrombotic agent during this period.
We identified a total of 91 patients who were evaluated between the period 1992 to 1999 with a diagnosis of TIA or stroke caused by intracranial atherosclerosis, of whom 39 (43%) did not meet entry criteria for this study. The reasons for exclusion were concomitant high-risk source of cardioembolic disease (8 patients), high-grade extracranial stenosis proximal to the intracranial stenosis (7 patients), stenosis of <50% (11 patients), probable intracranial occlusion (2 patients), nonatherosclerotic causes of stenosis (4 patients), and confounding disorders (2 partial complex epilepsy, 1 cerebellar degeneration, 1 hydrocephalus, 1 anterior communicating artery aneurysm, 1 previous diagnosis of CNS vasculitis and atherosclerosis). Two patients were excluded for two reasons (high-risk cardioembolic source and proximal vertebral artery stenosis). Three patients were excluded due to inadequate data in the medical records.
Follow-up study.
Fifty-two patients fulfilled the entry criteria for the follow-up study. Their mean age was 66.7 ± 12.5 years (range 31 to 89 years). Twenty-one patients (40.4%) were women. Eighteen patients were of non-Caucasian ethnicity (12 [66%] Asian, 3 [17%] Hispanic, and 3 [17%] African American). The mean length of follow-up was 16.7 months.
Eight patients had one or more TIA or a stroke while receiving antiplatelet agents (seven patients) or warfarin (one patient) for reasons unrelated to the symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis (Group A1; see figure). Forty-four patients had initial TIA or a stroke while not receiving any antithrombotic agent and were subsequently treated with antiplatelet agents (12 patients) or anticoagulant drugs (warfarin 27 patients, heparin 4 patients). One patient was enrolled in the WASID trial and randomized to either warfarin or aspirin. Of these 44 patients, 21 (47.7%) had subsequent cerebral ischemic events, which qualified them as antithrombotic therapy failures (Group 2; see figure). Twenty-three patients did not have any recurrences while receiving antithrombotic therapy (Group B).
The baseline characteristics of the patients who failed antithrombotic therapy (Group A = A1 and A2) and those who did not have medical therapy failure (Group B) are described in table 1. Their affected vessels and associated cerebrovascular lesions are described in table 2.
Sites of intracranial stenosis and additional cerebrovascular lesions
Patients who did not have recurrent stroke/TIA after starting antithrombotic therapy (Group B, n = 23).
The presenting cerebral ischemic events in these patients were stroke in 13 patients and TIA in 10 patients. Seven patients presented with multiple TIA and three with a single TIA. Intracranial atherosclerosis was defined by conventional cerebral angiography in 35% of patients, by a combination of MRA and TCD in 48%, TCD alone in 4%, and MRA alone in 13%. On MRA, five stenoses were described as flow gaps and eight stenoses as “high grade” or “significant.” One lesion was considered “moderate,” but in this patient the stenosis was documented to be high grade by TCD (mean velocity in the right carotid siphon 118 cm/s). The mean stenosis as measured by conventional angiograms (n = 8) was 72.2% (range 50 to 90%).
Following the initial stroke/TIA, 19 (82.6%) patients were treated with warfarin (target INR = 2.0 to 3.0), 2 (8.7%) patients were treated with aspirin (325 mg daily), and 1 (4.3%) patient was treated with ticlopidine (250 mg bid). One patient was entered in the WASID trial, a double-blind trial comparing aspirin 1300 mg/day with dose-adjusted warfarin (target = INR 2.0 to 3.0).
The median follow-up length was 13.6 months (25th percentile 6 months to 75th percentile 41 months).
During the follow-up period, four patients (19%) had cerebral ischemic events with subtherapeutic INR at the time of the event (three TIA, one nonfatal stroke). One patient had an angiogram-related nonfatal stroke. Four patients (19%) had nonfatal bleeding complications during warfarin therapy. One patient had an intracerebral hemorrhage, two patients had gastrointestinal bleeds, and one patient had a thigh hematoma requiring hospitalization. The overall bleeding rate was 11.3%/year. One patient underwent an extracranial/intracranial bypass in an outside hospital during follow-up. An angiogram was performed in another patient with the intent to perform an intracranial angioplasty, but the procedure was not attempted due to the complexity of the lesion.
Patients who failed antithrombotic therapy (Group A [A1 and A2], n = 29).
The presenting events at the time of failing antithrombotic therapy were stroke in 10 patients and TIA in 19 patients (single TIA in 2 and multiple TIA in 17). At the time of medical failure, 16 (55%) of these patients were receiving an antiplatelet agent, 9 (31%) were taking warfarin (INR > 2.0), and 4 (14%) were being treated with heparin (aPTT more than two times baseline value). The diagnosis of intracranial atherosclerosis was made by cerebral angiography in 76% of these patients, MRA combined with TCD in 10%, MRA alone in 10%, and TCD alone in 4%. The mean percentage stenosis of the symptomatic vessels in patients who had a conventional angiogram was 80% (n = 22). The results of all MRA were described as high-grade stenosis.
Twenty-one patients (Group A2; see figure) had an initial stroke/TIA attributed to intracranial atherosclerosis while not on any antithrombotic therapy. Following their initial event, either antiplatelet agents or anticoagulants were initiated. Subsequently, these patients had new ischemic events qualifying them as antithrombotic therapy failures. In these 21 patients, the median time between the initial event and the subsequent event was 32 days (25th percentile 3 days to 75th percentile 125 days). Eight patients (Group A1; see figure) had their initial TIA/stroke while receiving antiplatelet agents or warfarin for reasons not related to symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis. Seven patients were taking an antiplatelet agent (secondary prevention of previous TIA or stroke unrelated to intracranial atherosclerosis in three, secondary prevention for coronary artery disease in three, unknown in one). One patient was taking warfarin because of asymptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis. The clinical features of patients who failed antithrombotic therapy are summarized in table 3.
Clinical characteristics of patients who failed antithrombotic therapy
Predictors of failing antithrombotic therapy.
In a univariate analysis, patients who failed antithrombotic therapy were more likely to be Caucasian (p = 0.038), have hyperlipidemia (p = 0.055), and be taking antiplatelet agents rather than warfarin (p < 0.001) at the time of the initial stroke/TIA (see table 1).
The results of the Cox regression model are presented in table 4. The patient included in the WASID trial was excluded for this analysis because his therapy is currently unknown. The patients who were receiving heparin (n = 4) were also excluded. Age was associated with a mild increase in risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.04 [95% CI 1.01 to 1.07]). Therapy with warfarin was associated with a reduction of risk compared with therapy with antiplatelet agents (HR 0.20 [95% CI 0.07 to 0.59]). Posterior versus anterior circulation disease was not an independent predictor of failing antithrombotic therapy, nor was race or hypercholesterolemia.
Cox regression model of predictors of cerebral ischemic events while using antithrombotic agents (n = 47)
Follow-up study after failing antithrombotic therapy.
After their initial TIA/stroke, the patients who were already taking antithrombotic therapy for reasons unrelated to symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis (Group A1, n = 8) were switched from aspirin (n = 7) to warfarin (n = 6) or ticlopidine (n = 1). The patient in Group A1 who was receiving warfarin was switched to heparin. Patients who had recurrent cerebral ischemic events after being started on an antithrombotic therapy because of symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis (Group A2, n = 21) were switched from antiplatelet agents (n = 9) to warfarin therapy (target INR = 2.0 to 3.0; n = 6) or to ticlopidine (250 mg bid; n = 2). One patient was entered in the WASID trial. The patients who were treated with warfarin (n = 8) were switched to heparin (n = 6); one patient was treated with a combination of warfarin and aspirin, and one patient underwent an immediate angioplasty. Three of the four patients treated with heparin underwent an immediate angioplasty, and one was switched to warfarin.
For the survival analysis, patients undergoing intracranial angioplasty during follow-up were censored on the day the procedure was performed (n = 3). In four patients, intracranial angioplasty was performed immediately after failing heparin (n = 3) or warfarin (n = 1), and these patients are not included in the survival analysis. Therefore, 25 patients were eligible for the follow-up study after failing antithrombotic therapy. Fifteen (60%) of these patients (5 from Group A1 and 10 from Group A2) had a TIA or stroke or died during follow-up. The median time to TIA, stroke, or death was 36 days (95% CI 13 to 59).
The 15 outcome events were TIA (n = 7), nonfatal stroke (n = 6), fatal stroke (n = 1), and death due to retroperitoneal hemorrhage while receiving heparin (n = 1). The annual stroke or death rate was 45.1%.
At the time of the outcome events, these patients were receiving heparin (three patients all with aPTT more than two times baseline), warfarin (n = 9; INR > 2.0 in all), warfarin and aspirin in one patient, and ticlopidine in two patients (250 mg bid).
Discussion.
Symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis is infrequent in patients referred to the Stanford Stroke Center. It was considered to be the exclusive cause of stroke or TIA in 2.7% of consecutive TIA or stroke patients evaluated between 1996 and 1999. In another 1.3%, intracranial atherosclerosis was detected in conjunction with other etiologic mechanisms of stroke. Recent series of consecutive patients have identified symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis as the most likely etiology of stroke in ∼8% of consecutive ischemic stroke patients.1,2 African Americans and Asians appear more likely to have intracranial atherosclerotic disease.12–14 Differences in study design and case mix may explain the lower frequency of symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis in our cohort. Our study was retrospective in design and not population based. In addition, lesions of the anterior and posterior cerebral arteries were excluded. Most non-Caucasians were Asian in our cohort, whereas in other studies, most of the non-Caucasians were African American or Hispanic.1,2
Patients with intracranial atherosclerosis frequently had cerebral ischemic events while being treated with an antiplatelet agent or oral anticoagulant. Patients with therapeutic failure were more frequently Caucasian and were more likely to have hyperlipidemia, although these features were not independent predictors of failing antithrombotic treatment in a Cox proportional hazards model. Posterior circulation disease (versus anterior circulation disease) was not a significant predictor of failing antithrombotic therapy. The Cox model identified only older age and use of an antiplatelet agent, rather than warfarin, as predictors of therapeutic failure. Our findings are compatible with a previous retrospective study that suggested warfarin may be more effective than aspirin for treatment of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis.5 As this was an observational study, not a randomized trial, these findings must be interpreted with caution because unknown confounding variables and biases might be responsible for the more favorable outcomes in patients treated with warfarin. For example, patients with more severe concomitant medical conditions may have been considered poor candidates for warfarin therapy and preferentially treated with antiplatelet agents; these patients might have increased stroke risk.
To our knowledge, no previous study has focused on the prognosis of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail standard antithrombotic therapy. Some of the patients enrolled in the Extracranial/Intracranial Bypass Study were likely receiving antiplatelet agents at the time of their qualifying event for the trial, but a separate analysis of these patients was not reported.3 In the retrospective WASID study, ∼30% of patients were receiving aspirin at the time of the qualifying event, but no data regarding these patients have been presented.5 The Ticlopidine Aspirin Stroke Study (TASS) appears to be the only stroke prevention study that reported results for patients who were taking aspirin or anticoagulants at the time of their qualifying TIA or stroke. In a post hoc subgroup analysis, these patients were reported to have had a higher stroke recurrence rate than patients who were not receiving antithrombotic therapy at the time of their qualifying event.15,16 The frequency of intracranial atherosclerosis in the TASS patients is not known, as intracranial imaging was not required.
As the optimal treatment for patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis is unknown and no randomized trial has convincingly demonstrated the superiority of any specific antithrombotic agent in preventing recurrent cerebral ischemic events, we considered patients to fail antithrombotic therapy if they had ischemic events while taking either warfarin therapy (INR ≥ 2.0) or an antiplatelet agent that has been shown to be effective for secondary prevention of stroke.17
Almost half of the patients who were not receiving antithrombotic therapy at the time of their initial TIA or stroke had a recurrent cerebral ischemic event. This high recurrence rate is higher than that reported in several previous retrospective and prospective studies of patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis. Recurrent annual stroke rates of 4 to 12%/year with atherosclerosis of the intracranial anterior circulation and 2.5 to 15%/year with posterior circulation atherosclerotic disease have been reported.3,4,18–26 Our very high recurrent stroke rates may be explained by the referral of high-risk patients to a stroke center and the use of different inclusion and exclusion criteria. For example, patients who had a TIA or a stroke despite treatment with heparin or warfarin were immediately eligible for inclusion in our study.
Among patients who failed antithrombotic therapy, the subsequent rate of stroke or death was extremely high (45%/year) and recurrent events occurred quickly. After 36 days, 50% of these patients had again failed antithrombotic therapy. Seven patients had intracranial angioplasty performed before any recurrent event occurred after their initial failure of antithrombotic therapy. We censored these patients at the time of angioplasty in the follow-up analysis because we wanted to study the natural history of patients who received only antithrombotic therapy.
Our group recently reported a periprocedural complication rate of 8.7% (one fatal vessel rupture, one stroke treated with intra-arterial recombinant tissue plasminogen activator) and a low annual stroke recurrence risk (4.8%) in a series of 23 patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis treated with intracranial angioplasty.7 This study, however, excluded patients who had angioplasty performed in the setting of acute stroke.
Several limitations to this study should be noted. Referral of complex cases with ongoing cerebral ischemic events may have led to selection bias, overestimating the proportion of patients who would fail antithrombotic therapy in a population-based sample. Referral bias may also have led to inclusion of younger patients, patients with a poor prognosis, or patients with unusual or very complex lesions. Angiography was not obtained in all patients, reflecting the practice at our institution of frequently relying on results of MRA or TCD. Moreover, no formal blinded review of the imaging results was performed. In addition, MRA probably overestimates the degrees of stenosis.27–29 TCD has acceptable sensitivity and specificity for detecting intracranial stenosis, but this varies with the blood flow velocity thresholds used.30–32 The technique is highly operator dependent, and false positives have been reported. If, as in extracranial atherosclerotic disease, a relationship exists between the severity of the stenosis and the occurrence of cerebral ischemic events, the inclusion of false positives might underestimate the true recurrence rate in our population.33 The retrospective design of the study did not allow calculation of ipsilateral stroke or TIA rates. Follow-up was relatively short in some patients. Some neurologic symptoms occurring during the follow-up period were difficult to localize clearly to a specific vascular territory or to verify as true cerebral ischemic events. We relied on the treating neurologist’s opinion of whether neurologic events represented ischemic phenomena.
Patients with symptomatic intracranial atherosclerosis who fail antithrombotic therapy appear to be at high risk for subsequent cerebral ischemic events. Recurrent events frequently take place within the first month after failing antithrombotic therapy. High event rates can be anticipated in the medical therapy arms in studies of new interventions that enroll patients with symptomatic intracranial stenosis who have failed antithrombotic therapy.
Acknowledgments
Supported by the Belgian American Educational Foundation and the Rotary Foundation (V.N.T.) and by an unrestricted educational grant from Guidant Corporation.
Footnotes
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See also page 465
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Dr. Albers has worked as a consultant for Guidant Corporation.
- Received March 15, 2000.
- Accepted April 26, 2000.
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