This article requires a subscription to view the full text. If you have a subscription you may use the login form below to view the article. Access to this article can also be purchased.
Abstract
Objective A tool to stratify the risk of stroke recurrence in patients with embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) could be useful in research and clinical practice. We aimed to determine whether a score can be developed and externally validated for the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.
Methods We pooled the data of all consecutive patients with ESUS from 11 prospective stroke registries. We performed multivariable Cox regression analysis to identify predictors of stroke recurrence. Based on the coefficient of each covariate of the fitted multivariable model, we generated an integer-based point scoring system. We validated the score externally assessing its discrimination and calibration.
Results In 3 registries (884 patients) that were used as the derivation cohort, age, leukoaraiosis, and multiterritorial infarct were identified as independent predictors of stroke recurrence and were included in the final score, which assigns 1 point per every decade after 35 years of age, 2 points for leukoaraiosis, and 3 points for multiterritorial infarcts (acute or old nonlacunar). The rate of stroke recurrence was 2.1 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44–3.06) in patients with a score of 0–4 (low risk), 3.74 (95% CI 2.77–5.04) in patients with a score of 5–6 (intermediate risk), and 8.23 (95% CI 5.99–11.3) in patients with a score of 7–12 (high risk). Compared to low-risk patients, the risk of stroke recurrence was significantly higher in intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.78, 95% CI 1.1–2.88) and high-risk patients (HR 4.67, 95% CI 2.83–7.7). The score was well-calibrated in both derivation and external validation cohorts (8 registries, 820 patients) (Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ2: 12.1 [p = 0.357] and χ2: 21.7 [p = 0.753], respectively). The area under the curve of the score was 0.63 (95% CI 0.58–0.68) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.54–0.66), respectively.
Conclusions The proposed score can assist in the identification of patients with ESUS at high risk for stroke recurrence.
Glossary
- AF=
- atrial fibrillation;
- AUC=
- area under the receiver operating characteristic curve;
- CI=
- confidence interval;
- ESUS=
- embolic stroke of undetermined source;
- HR=
- hazard ratio;
- IQR=
- interquartile range;
- VIF=
- variance inflation factor
Footnotes
Go to Neurology.org/N for full disclosures. Funding information and disclosures deemed relevant by the authors, if any, are provided at the end of the article.
- Received February 6, 2019.
- Accepted in final form June 11, 2019.
- © 2019 American Academy of Neurology
AAN Members: Sign in with your AAN member credentials (e-mail or 6-digit Member ID number)
Non-AAN Member subscribers: Sign in with subscriber credentials
Log in using your username and password
Purchase access
Disputes & Debates: Rapid online correspondence
NOTE: All authors' disclosures must be entered and current in our database before comments can be posted. Enter and update disclosures at http://submit.neurology.org. Exception: replies to comments concerning an article you originally authored do not require updated disclosures.
- Stay timely. Submit only on articles published within the last 8 weeks.
- Do not be redundant. Read any comments already posted on the article prior to submission.
- 200 words maximum.
- 5 references maximum. Reference 1 must be the article on which you are commenting.
- 5 authors maximum. Exception: replies can include all original authors of the article.
- Submitted comments are subject to editing and editor review prior to posting.